We Have a Human Problem

This is part 2 in a series about accelerating heat pump adoption in America. If you missed the first issue, check it out here.

If we want to accelerate the heat pump transition, we have to start by understanding the reality on the ground: 

Very few people—contractors and homeowners alike—fully understand what a heat pump is, or how it can deliver better comfort, efficiency, and air quality than legacy heating and cooling systems.

That may come as a surprise, especially given another important reality that we’ve already discussed: heat pumps are a viable, high-performance solution in nearly every U.S. climate.

In the sections that follow, we’ll explore the human factors slowing adoption, from the challenges HVAC contractors face on the front lines, to the confusion and mistrust many homeowners bring to the table.

Then, we’ll look at a host of potential solutions, including education, workforce development, improved tools and techniques, and business model innovations. 

Let’s start with perhaps the most important link in the chain: the HVAC contractor.

The Current State of HVAC

For decades, HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning) contractors have made their living designing, installing, and servicing the systems that keep homes warm in the winter and cool in the summer. Traditionally, these systems have relied on gas furnaces for heating and central air conditioners for cooling—a familiar, dependable setup that most contractors know inside and out. 

The HVAC industry runs on speed, familiarity, and minimizing risk. Systems are often oversized and relatively forgiving, and most replacements are emergencies. That means contractors are incentivized to default to what they know: gas furnaces and central ACs. It's faster, more reliable, and less likely to lead to a callback.

While heat pumps are gaining visibility, limited training, inconsistent results, and a general bias against the technology has made adoption slow. Many in the trade remain skeptical, and understandably so.

To understand the dynamics shaping today’s HVAC industry, it’s helpful to look at a common figure who represents a large portion of the field.

The Legacy HVAC Contractor Archetype

These kinds of contractors fit into an archetype that we can call the “legacy HVAC contractor.” 

The legacy HVAC contractor is typically an owner-operator, often a sole proprietor or the head of a small team with a few service technicians. He has built his business over the course of several decades on reputation, reliability, and responsiveness.

From a technical standpoint, his skills and knowledge are “good enough” as far as he’s concerned.  He’s not properly trained on “Manual J” (a standardized method for performing a heating and cooling load calculation in a home that we will discuss later in detail), and even if he does complete one prior to recommending a system, he’s probably doing it to satisfy a permitting requirement or regulation. 

More often than not, he’s just using a good old “rule of thumb” to determine which heating or cooling equipment is right for which house.

That’s because he almost exclusively installs what he already knows: mostly gas furnaces, maybe central ACs. He’s generally skeptical of any other kinds of equipment, especially heat pumps. If a customer wants one, he’s more than likely to try to steer them back towards a furnace, especially if he’s working in a colder climate. 

Why? Because he doesn’t trust that the heat pump is going to provide enough heating on the coldest days of the year. He may have even installed a heat pump for a homeowner in the past—but it did not go well. And the absolute last thing he wants is to get a call from an angry homeowner in the middle of January complaining about how cold their house is.

That would mean he has to make a house call, diagnose a problem with equipment that he may not be overly familiar with, and, worst-case scenario, rip out an under-performing unit and install something new. This costs time—which he doesn’t have—and money.

Furthermore, most customers he works with are calling him because it’s an emergency: their 20 year old gas furnace just quit on them and they’re standing in a frigid basement, staring down the barrel of an unexpected expense that amounts to one of the biggest investments outside of their home and vehicle that they will ever make. They’re emotional, uncomfortable, and they want a solution now. 

Enter the legacy HVAC contractor: the trusted (and often only) advisor in the moment of truth, standing in that basement alongside the homeowner, ready to recommend what comes next.

He’s likely going to recommend the lowest risk option, the one that is the cheapest, and the one he knows best: swapping out a like-for-like gas furnace that will almost certainly keep the homeowner warm and will not result in a callback. In fact, he’s probably already got a unit on his truck that he can put in today.

Unless the contractor brings it up, most homeowners will never even know a heat pump is an option—let alone consider it. They’ll simply go with whatever the contractor recommends.

And, to be fair to the contractor, he has good reason to shy away from a heat pump recommendation. 

The Legacy HVAC Business Model is Hard for Heat Pumps

HVAC is one of the most demanding and multidisciplinary trades in the building sector. It draws on elements of electrical work, plumbing, sheet metal fabrication, and refrigeration—all while requiring technicians to perform physically taxing labor in hot attics, cramped crawl spaces, and unpredictable field conditions.

Unlike many other trades, HVAC also demands a solid grasp of science. Technicians must have at minimum a working understanding of fluid dynamics (how air and refrigerants move through ducts and coils), thermodynamics (how heat is transferred and removed), and building science (how air sealing, insulation, and moisture impact comfort and energy use).

And unlike static systems, HVAC systems are dynamic—they respond to weather, ductwork, occupant behavior, and load conditions in real time. That means contractors aren’t just installers; they’re troubleshooters and systems integrators, often diagnosing complex problems under pressure.

To make things even more difficult, most HVAC pros are also running small businesses. The majority operate with fewer than five employees and under $1 million in annual revenue. That means juggling technical work with sales, scheduling, and customer service—often for anxious homeowners in the middle of a heating or cooling emergency. 

That downward pressure on a contractor’s time and availability also means that most HVAC businesses aren’t built for long decision cycles. Their business model is optimized for speed, not consultation. 

Most contractors are paid to fix problems quickly, not to educate homeowners, spend lots of time understanding the specific problems they are facing in their home, or walk them through the nuances of heat pump performance and rebates. None of these activities are revenue-generating, which means taking the time to recommend a heat pump is not only risky, but also potentially less profitable. The same reasoning applies to larger shops—including those that have been rolled up by private equity. 

In that context, it’s no surprise many contractors are risk-averse and skeptical of new technologies like heat pumps, which can feel untested or unfamiliar compared to the like-for-like gas furnace and central AC installations they’ve done for decades.

What HVAC Contractors Get Wrong – And Why It Matters

Unfortunately, following the standard playbook of swapping out like-for-like systems often leads HVAC contractors to do a disservice to their customers that they likely don’t even fully understand. 

Let’s take heating as an example. The legacy HVAC contractor, upon entering a customer’s home for an emergency replacement, finds that the customer has a 100,000 BTU (“8-ton”) gas furnace installed that has just broken down on them. Since the customer’s only complaint is that the furnace is no longer working, the easiest and most direct path to solving their problem is to swap out a like-for-like system and install a brand new furnace of the same size.

The problem is that this furnace was never the right size for this home. It was always too big. Studies have suggested that up to 50% of homes in the US have heating systems that are oversized, but reports from the field are even worse:

When a furnace is oversized, it will still provide heat to the home – but it will do so in short bursts, turning on and off frequently. This is called short-cycling, and it makes the home much less comfortable than it could be. It’s like taking a shower by pouring a bucket of hot water over your head. Frequent short-cycling can also lead to inefficiency, increased energy consumption, and even potential damage.

The same thing can happen with an oversized AC, but there’s an additional negative outcome. When an AC is oversized, it short-cycles just like a furnace does, which may keep the home generally cool. But an AC should also pull moisture and humidity out of the air—and when it turns on and off too quickly, it doesn’t run long enough to properly dehumidify the space. 

The result is a home that feels clammy, not comfortable—cool on the thermostat, but sticky and unpleasant in real life. Too much humidity in a home can also cause damage and promote mold growth, leading to a host of poor health outcomes. Setting the thermostat lower to compensate for poor dehumidification can help on the margins, but it will still often result in an uncomfortable home—while using excess energy.

This is typically what happens when a contractor swaps a like-for-like furnace or AC or uses a “rule of thumb” to size a system. These systems “work”—but they often lead to uncomfortable or even unhealthy homes. Oversized systems also cost more to operate.

Heat Pumps Work – If Sized Right

Here’s the good news: A right-sized, properly installed heat pump will fix essentially all of the problems that oversized gas furnaces and ACs create. 

The bad news? Just like with legacy equipment, most contractors do not understand how to properly size heat pumps.

There are a few reasons for this, and it starts with the fact that a heat pump is simply a more complex piece of equipment:

If a contractor installs an oversized heat pump based only on the size of the existing gas furnace and a general “rule of thumb”, the equipment will almost certainly be oversized for the heating load that the house requires in the winter. And if it’s oversized for heating, it will definitely be oversized for cooling, which will lead to all of the negative outcomes discussed above.

So how do contractors make sure they are right-sizing heat pumps? 

Enter Manual J – Friend or Foe?

Manual J is a standardized method developed by Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) for calculating how much heating or cooling a home actually needs. It’s meant to replace guesswork with math—taking into account factors like square footage, insulation, window types, and air leakage. This is referred to as a load calculation.

In theory, it’s a critical tool for right-sizing HVAC equipment. In practice, it’s rarely used—and when it is, it’s often done incorrectly. Many contractors either skip it altogether, rely on outdated rule-of-thumb sizing (like BTUs per square foot), or plug in conservative estimates that inflate the heating and cooling loads. 

The result? Systems that are still too big, too loud, too short-cycling—and still delivering the same problems for homeowners.

When it comes to using Manual J for heat pumps, the problems are no different. If a contractor does complete a load calculation using Manual J, he will often end up with a number that is 2x or higher than the actual heat load of the house. This has been observed over and over again in the field by professionals and is a topic of much debate in building science circles. While the underlying formulas provide precise figures, experienced professionals often find that the results simply don’t accurately reflect real-world conditions:

The upshot? When a contractor overestimates a heating load for a heat pump system, they will often default to recommending a “dual-fuel” system – one that includes a gas furnace for backup heat in the coldest parts of the year – or to simply forget about the heat pump altogether and install a new gas-only system. This leads the homeowner back to square one – burning stuff.

(As an aside: “dual-fuel” systems are not necessarily the worst-case scenario. A system that mostly relies on the heat pump and only switches over to gas in extreme cold can still be hugely beneficial for the homeowner and effective in reducing the majority of their fossil-fuel usage. Some experts in the field even recommend moving to mostly “dual-fuel” systems as a way of easing the transition from gas to electric. But that’s a debate for another time.) 

There’s another layer of complexity – many states require contractors to perform a Manual J or equivalent load calculation in order to receive permits and rebates. The result is that contractors often rush the process (or even falsify numbers) just to push projects through, adding more confusion.

Homeowners: The Other Side of the Equation

So far, we’ve looked at the HVAC contractor – the trusted source making the recommendation in the basement, often under pressure and with limited tools, time, or training to change course. Contractors hold immense power and sway with homeowners, who will ultimately be making the final decision as to how to heat and cool their homes. 

But the homeowner’s side of the equation brings its own set of challenges, ones that are equally important in understanding why heat pump adoption still lags.

Nobody Cares About HVAC

For most homeowners, HVAC is a black box. 86% of U.S. homeowners lack detailed knowledge of their HVAC system. They often don’t know how it works, or even understand the full scope of the equipment they have in their home. They just want to be comfortable, especially in an emergency, which is unfortunately when the vast majority of HVAC installs are completed. 

When the furnace dies in the middle of winter, they’re not researching variable-speed inverter technology or weighing decarbonization benefits. They’re cold, stressed, and looking for the fastest fix. That often means relying entirely on the contractor standing in front of them.

But what kind of information do they actually want or need?

It turns out that—big surprise—most people don’t even want to know how their HVAC system works. They don’t want to have a discussion about BTUs or a 2-ton vs a 3-ton system. They just want to avoid getting more overwhelmed than they already are, feel confident about their decision, and be comfortable in their home.

The Race to the Bottom

This limited understanding puts the homeowner in a vulnerable position when it’s time to choose a contractor for a new installation or replacement. Lacking the technical expertise to evaluate system design or installation quality, many default to more relatable metrics: courtesy, friendliness, and responsiveness. Was the contractor polite? Did they take off their shoes when they came in the front door? Did they return my call quickly?

But courtesy isn't the same as competence. And when a homeowner can’t tell the difference between high- and low-quality work, they often fall back on the most important metric they do understand: price.

This dynamic hurts everyone. It rewards speed over precision, discourages proper system design, and turns the sales conversation into one about price rather than value.

In short, it commodifies work that should be customized. 

And in an emergency replacement scenario, the odds of any kind of nuanced conversation between the contractor and the homeowner are slim:

In this scenario, there’s not much of an opening for a contractor to educate a distressed homeowner on the benefits of choosing a heat pump, even if that contractor wanted to do so. In the end, it's homeowners who pay the price in the form of oversized systems, higher energy bills, and uncomfortable homes.

What Does a Heat Pump Cost?

Let’s say that a motivated homeowner and their contractor do have a conversation about installing a heat pump. One of the most common—and most confusing—questions they will ask is: “What’s this going to cost me?” 

Unfortunately, the answer is rarely straightforward.

Heat pump pricing varies wildly. There’s a mix of factors at play: system type, installation complexity, local labor rates, contractor business models, and whether ductwork needs to be added or upgraded. 

For instance, a study by Laminar Collective gathered quotes from 15 different contractors for both ductless mini-split systems—wall-mounted units that deliver heating and cooling without ductwork—and ducted systems, which connect to a home’s existing central air ducts. The test case: a 1,500-square-foot, 3-bedroom home in Wakefield, MA.

The results are staggering. Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems.

Massive price discrepancies like these are not uncommon. This undermines homeowner confidence and makes it nearly impossible to know what a “fair” price actually is.

What About Incentives?

It’s an understatement to say that the incentive landscape for home electrification is confusing. Even in a relatively stable policy environment, homeowners face a dizzying array of programs at the federal, state, local, and utility levels, each with its own eligibility rules, paperwork, deadlines, and equipment requirements.

For example: a homeowner in Boulder, CO looking to install a heat pump and take advantage of rebates has to navigate all of the following:

And if you live just a few miles away, across a city or county line, the available rebates could look completely different—even if you're still within the same utility’s territory.

The sheer number of programs, combined with inconsistent eligibility criteria, makes it nearly impossible for the average homeowner to figure out how much money they can actually save or what steps they need to take to qualify. Many incentives require specific equipment types, certifications, or pre-approval processes. Miss one detail, and you could lose out on thousands of dollars.

Unfortunately, many legacy HVAC contractors are also in the dark when it comes to taking full advantage of incentives. They don’t have the capacity to take on the additional administrative burden of tracking constantly shifting rebate rules, managing paperwork, or helping homeowners apply for tax credits. It’s simply not within the scope of their business model.

In many regions, this leaves homeowners with few options if they want a contractor who can help them navigate available incentives.

The Bottom Line

Between lack of information and guidance, inconsistent pricing, and confusing incentives, it’s no wonder many homeowners either delay upgrading their systems or fall back on the status quo, even when better solutions exist.

If we want heat pump adoption to scale, we have to fix these human problems. In the next section, we’ll look at the solutions starting to break through.

This is part 2 of a series about accelerating heat pump adoption in America. If you missed part 1, check it out here. Thank you to Climate Drift for letting us share this piece with the Heat Pumped community!

Struggling to get a heat pump in your own home?

The Heat Pumped group buy is a way to avoid many of these challenges - finding a heat pump centric contractor you can trust, getting a fair price, and planning the replacement when you’re not under duress. Today is the last day to sign up for an installation in 2025, so if you’ve been thinking about it, submit the form today!