Harnessing America’s Heat Pump Moment

Editor’s note: This is a guest post by Joseph DeNatale, an entrepreneur and project coordinator at Jetson Home. It originally appeared in Climate Drift earlier this year, and is republished on Heat Pumped with permission.

Joseph interviewed me when he was researching the piece, and I was excited to see that the final product touched many topics that I've been wanting to write about.

A big thank you to Joseph and Climate Drift for sharing with the Heat Pumped community - it's incredibly in-depth. Since there’s so much to digest, we’re splitting it up into 5 parts that we'll be sharing over the next few weeks.

Why Execution Is Everything: A Personal Perspective

As a small business owner, I’ve built a career not around inventing new things, but around making things happen: making sure systems run smoothly, projects get completed on time, and clients feel taken care of. 

My work has been rooted in the real-world, hands-on, often chaotic rhythm of operations, logistics, and direct client service. Whether it’s organizing teams to execute live events, refining workflows to scale a growing business, or managing the delicate art of closing a sale, I’ve learned one simple truth: the hardest part is never the idea. It’s the execution.

So when I began diving into the world of home electrification—particularly heat pumps—that same truth surfaced again, just with higher stakes. 

The technology isn’t the issue. In fact, the technology is there. It’s been there for decades, and it is continuing to improve. We’re not waiting on some magical breakthrough or futuristic device. 

We’re waiting on people—mostly homeowners and home contractors, but also manufacturers and policy makers—to embrace, understand, and implement what already works.

This piece isn’t about reinventing the wheel. It’s about understanding why we’re not using the wheel we already have—and what it’s going to take, from the human side of the equation, to make heat pumps the obvious, accessible, and default choice for millions of American homes.

Heat Pumps Aren’t New—But This Moment Is

In the world of climate solutions, it’s easy to get distracted by what’s shiny and new—sleek devices, breakthrough technologies, futuristic models of sustainability. 

But not every climate solution is some new-fangled wonder gadget. Some of them already exist. Some of them are sitting in basements and behind houses, quietly doing the work.

The heat pump is one of them.

Heat pumps are not new. In fact, the idea has been around for well over a century, and the technology has been used widely for decades—mostly in Europe and Asia, but also in pockets of the U.S.—for everything from water heating to whole-home climate control. 

Modern heat pumps are highly efficient—anywhere from 2-4x more efficient than a furnace—and capable of replacing both a furnace and an air conditioner with a single system in virtually every climate. For millions of homes across the country, they offer a cleaner, quieter, and more precise way to stay comfortable year-round.

Importantly, heat pumps have also been shown to match or beat the operating costs of even the cheapest heating option—natural gas—in many cases. This has been demonstrated through both local and national studies. One study showed that over 90% of American households would save on energy bills by replacing worn-out heating equipment with the right-sized heat pump. 

Installation costs vary wildly depending on many factors in a home, but with the introduction of generous incentives via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and additional state programs, even these costs can be on-par with fossil fuel alternatives. 

So why aren’t they everywhere?

The answer isn’t technical. It’s cultural, economic, and human. 

TL;DR

Heat pumps are proven, efficient, and climate-friendly—but adoption is still slow. 

The barrier isn’t the tech. It’s people: 

• Contractors who default to what they know

• Homeowners who need education and guidance

• A fragmented market full of noise and misinformation

This piece discusses these challenges, and then explores five keys to accelerating adoption:

1. Educate homeowners so heat pumps feel familiar and trustworthy.

2. Train the next-gen workforce and upskill legacy HVAC pros.

3. Leverage better tools and data to size and install systems right.

4. Prioritize quality and trust to build social proof and demand.

5. Align policy to phase out one-way ACs and normalize heat pumps.

Execution—not invention—is what will move the needle.

Hold On.. What’s A Heat Pump Again?

If you’re reading this piece, you probably know what a heat pump is (and you can feel free to skip this section).

But if you’re among the uninitiated – like, believe it or not, most people – here’s a (very) quick primer. (Editor’s note: check out Heat Pumps 101 if you want to dive deeper)

The 2-Way AC

The term “heat pump”, it turns out, is a fairly unhelpful name for most people. In fact, there are some leaders in the home electrification industry who believe the name itself is one of the barriers to adoption. It’s one of many ways that the heat pump is misunderstood.

Think of a heat pump as a “2-way AC.” An air conditioner cools your home by pulling heat from inside an enclosed space and transferring it outside. Your refrigerator works the same way.

A heat pump does the same thing, but can also reverse the process to bring heat into the home. It uses a few key components to make this happen:

• The fan pulls air across the system’s coils to help move heat in or out of the space.

• The evaporator coil absorbs heat from the air inside your home (in cooling mode) or from the outside air (in heating mode).

• The compressor pressurizes and moves a fluid called refrigerant through the system, enabling the heat transfer process.

• The refrigerant is the working fluid that captures and carries heat from one place to another—either out of your home or into it.

What’s important to understand is that a heat pump does not create heat. It also doesn’t create cold (cold is the absence of heat, just like darkness is the absence of light). A heat pump simply transfers – pumps! – heat from one place to another.

But what about in the winter when it’s below freezing? In any environment where the temperature is above absolute zero (remember the Kelvin scale?) there is still a significant amount of heat in the air in the form of thermal energy. 

That’s why a heat pump can still heat your home even on the coldest day of the year.

Why Heat Pumps Matter 

The fact that heat pumps simply transfer heat—and do not create it—gives them the potential to heat homes without doing the thing that humans have done since time immemorial to keep warm: burn stuff.

In the U.S., over half of all homes still rely on burning fossil fuels for heat. Replacing those systems with electric, air source heat pumps (ASHPs) can significantly reduce household emissions, especially as the grid gets cleaner and moves towards a higher percentage of renewable energy (i.e. not burning stuff). 

And, because they’re so efficient, heat pumps can lower operating costs over time—although this is highly dependent on where you live, as the cost of fuel and electricity varies widely. They’re also safer (no burning stuff), can improve indoor air quality (again, no burning), and create healthier, more comfortable homes. 

Finally, heat pumps are a crucial component of an energy-independent home. Paired with solar panels and battery storage, a homeowner can heat and cool their home entirely with energy they generate on their own. Try that with a furnace!

This is not a marginal climate solution. According to the IEA, global heat pump adoption could reduce carbon emissions by half a billion tons annually—roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of all cars in Europe.

The Heat Pump Moment Has Arrived

For years, heat pumps were a niche topic, something discussed by green building enthusiasts, early adopters, or homeowners with unusually high energy awareness. 

But that’s no longer the case. Here are four reasons why:

Cultural Momentum Is Building

The electrification movement is no longer a fringe concept. The push to “electrify everything” has gained traction among policymakers, climate advocates, startups, utilities, and even popular media. 

From Substack newsletters to YouTube explainers, there’s growing awareness that building decarbonization—and especially heating and cooling—is one of the most practical, scalable ways for regular people to cut their emissions. Campaigns like Rewiring America’s “Go Electric” initiative frame heat pumps not just as energy-efficient appliances, but as a gateway to modern, climate-aligned homes. 

This momentum is turning into real action. Heat pumps have now outsold gas furnaces in the U.S. every year since 2022.

Federal and State Policy Is Aligned (For Now)

For the time being (Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” notwithstanding), both federal and state governments are backing this transition with significant financial and structural support. Editor’s note: Ouch. Since this piece was originally written, OBBB passed, and most tax credits at the federal level phase out at the end of this year. If you’ve been on the fence about getting a heat pump, now might be a good time to act!

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has introduced a suite of rebates, tax credits, and grant programs designed to make heat pumps more affordable and accessible. Single-family households can receive up to $8,000 in upfront rebates for heat pump installations and up to $2,000 in federal tax credits, not to mention additional support for electrical panel upgrades and home energy audits. Editor’s note: the IRA rebates are federally funded, but implemented at the state level. Not all states are participating, and some that are haven’t rolled out their programs yet. In other states like California, the funds are already exhausted.

State and local governments are also leading the way in the transition away from fossil fuels on both the demand and supply sides. Programs like Efficiency Maine, TECH Clean California, and Mass Save offer generous incentives and no-interest financing to homeowners that drive the cost of electrification upgrades down even further. Meanwhile, New York City has banned gas in new construction, and Massachusetts has ordered public utilities to begin phasing out natural gas, a move which is being studied in at least 11 other states. 

Private Capital Is Following

The heat pump space is no longer just a niche for contractors and utilities—it’s attracting serious private investment. VC-backed companies like Quilt are reimagining the user experience with sleek, design-forward equipment and app-based controls. Others, like Elephant Energy and Forge, are building “heat pump concierge” platforms that manage the customer journey end-to-end—from sales to install to rebate navigation.

The Cold-Climate Performance Myth Has Been Fully Debunked

One of the biggest myths about heat pumps—that they can’t handle cold weather—is now being debunked at scale. While older, single-speed models may have struggled in colder temperatures, especially when size and installed incorrectly, modern cold-climate, variable-speed air-source heat pumps can provide reliable heating even at outdoor temperatures of -20°F.

These systems are already in use in northern New England, the upper Midwest, and Canada. In Nordic countries—some of the coldest climates in the word—the technology has been viable for decades.

And yet, despite all this momentum, heat pump adoption is still slow. 

Why? Because the hardest part isn’t scaling the technology. It’s aligning the people—contractors, homeowners, policymakers, and market actors—who need to make it happen.

That’s where we go next.

This is part 1 in a 5 part series about challenges and solutions in accelerating heat pump adoption across the US. Stay tuned for the next issue!

Want a heat pump in your own home?

The first Heat Pumped group buy generated lots of enthusiasm! There are still a handful of slots left, but you’ll have to act fast if you’re interested. Sign-ups close later this month (or when all the slots fill, whichever comes first).

PS: Want to break into a heat pump career? Vayu is looking for a part time project manager - no prior HVAC experience required!